Oscar Predictions 2011: Which Movie Will Win the Best Picture Award?

The question of the year in the movie industry: Who will win the Best Picture award? Who will take another Academy Award home as winner and who will just spend the night applauding others? As no one knows for sure yet, let’s take a look at the list of the Best Picture Nominees and try to come up with some system to make predictions.

Best Picture Nominees for the 83rd Academy Awards:

Black Swan — director: Darren Aronofsky; writers: Mark Heyman, Andres Heinz; stars: Natalie Portman, Mila Kunis and Vincent Cassel;

The Fighter — director: David O. Russell; writers: Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy, Stars: Mark Wahlberg, Christian Bale and Amy Adams

Inception — Director: Christopher Nolan; Writer: Christopher Nolan; Stars: Leonardo DiCaprio, Joseph Gordon-Levitt and Ellen Page

The Kids Are All Right — director: Lisa Cholodenko; writers: Lisa Cholodenko, Stuart Blumberg; stars: Annette Bening, Julianne Moore vand Mark Ruffalo

The King’s Speech — director: Tom Hooper; writer: David Seidler; stars: Colin Firth, Geoffrey Rush and Helena Bonham Carter

127 Hours — director: Danny Boyle; writers: Danny Boyle, Simon Beaufoy, stars: James Franco, Amber Tamblyn and Kate Mara

The Social Network — director: David Fincher; writers: Aaron Sorkin, Ben Mezrich; stars: Jesse Eisenberg, Andrew Garfield and Justin Timberlake

Toy Story 3 — director: Lee Unkrich; writers: John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton, stars: Tom Hanks, Tim Allen and Joan Cusack

True Grit — directors: Ethan Coen, Joel Coen; writers: Joel Coen, Ethan Coen; stars: Jeff Bridges, Matt Damon and Hailee Steinfeld

Winter’s Bone — director: Debra Granik; writers: Debra Granik, Anne Rosellini, stars: Jennifer Lawrence, John Hawkes and Garret Dillahunt

Hm, now that’s a list of some pretty good movies, how are these guys in Academy Awards supposed to decide, who is better? Whom they should give the Oscar statue? Oh the tension… Maybe we can help out by comparing them — how they were created, how they did in theaters and awards? Maybe we can develop some kind of system for determining the most likely winners…

You can see that most of them have really big names in cast and crew. Thought celebrity pressure can come from any of these movies; it’s not clear how to evaluate one or another star’s influence for popularity of the movie. Also, one should not forget that we all have our favorites, which is not good for making objective predictions. So we have to take some other, measurable and comparable things into account when deciding.

First thing we could look at is a) how much was invested in creating these movies b) how much they earned from them. In short — were they successful and the effort worth the money?

List no. 1: ‘Budget size vs. success’

  1. Black Swan — budget: 13,000,000; earnings: 83,250,375; ROI: 5.4
  2. The Kids Are All Right — budget: 4,000,000; earnings: 20,803,237; ROI: 4.2
  3. The King’s Speech — budget: 15,000,000; earnings: 57,313,881; ROI: 2.8
  4. True Grit — budget: 38,000,000; earnings: 137,963,519; ROI: 2.6
  5. Winter’s Bone — budget: 2,000,000; earnings: 6,271,086; ROI: 2.1
  6. The Fighter — budget: 25,000,000; earnings: 72,680,740; ROI: 1.9
  7. The Social Network — budget: 40,000,000; earnings: 95,408,473; ROI: 1.4
  8. Toy Story 3 — budget: 200,000,000; earnings: 415,004,880; ROI: 1.1
  9. Inception — budget: 160,000,000; earnings: 292,568,851; ROI: 0.8
  10. 127 Hours — budget: 18,000,000; earnings: 11,296,805; ROI: -0.4

What we get here is a very simple list of the Best Picture nominees according to return on investment [ROI] made in making them. The biggest return taking the first place, when going down to the smallest in the bottom. Basically, it shows how much money oscar nominees made in US from premier till January, divided by their estimated budget ($ numbers from IMDB and boxofficemojo.com). Conclusion – big budget is not everything you need for a blockbuster – “Black Swan” and “The Kids Are All Right” budgets were more than 10 times smaller compared to Inception, but they managed to make around 4 – 5 times more from one dollar invested. The biggest loser so far “127 Hours”, which haven’t managed to earn enough to cover costs yet. I didn’t rank them according to gross earnings, as popular opinion and sales can easily be manipulated by increasing spending on advertising, ROI shows a lot more in this case.

Secondly, we could consider how have these movies done in professional competitions?

List no. 2: ‘What do the pros think?”

  1. The Social Network — nominations: 55; Wins: 49; Oscar nom.:8; Total: 112
  2. The King’s Speech — nominations: 73; Wins: 16; Oscar nom.: 12; Total: 101
  3. Black Swan — nominations: 71; Wins: 21; Oscar nom.: 5; Total: 97
  4. Inception — nominations: 57; Wins: 27; Oscar nom.: 8; Total: 92
  5. True Grit — nominations: 55; Wins: 12; Oscar nom.: 10; Total: 77
  6. 127 Hours — nominations: 55; Wins: 4; Oscar nom.: 6; Total: 65
  7. Winter’s Bone — nominations: 42; Wins: 19; Oscar nom.: 4; Total: 65
  8. The Fighter — nominations: 32; Wins: 23; Oscar nom.: 7; Total: 62
  9. The Kids Are All Right — nominations: 51; Wins: 3; Oscar nom.: 4; Total: 58
  10. Toy Story 3 — nominations: 18; Wins: 18; Oscar nom.: 5; Total: 41

Here I added up all nominations with wins to see which movies were noticed the most in different awards. Here “The Social Network” takes lead, with “The King’s Speech” and “Black Swan” still in top three before the big spenders “Inception” and others. Hmm do we see a trend here already?

Thirdly, it’s very important to compare how viewers and critics evaluate these movies:

List no. 3: ‘A, B, C… or F?’

  1. Toy Story 3 — IMDB: 8.7; metacritics.com: 92; average: 9.0
  2. The Social Network — IMDB: 8.2; metacritics.com: 95; average: 8.9
  3. The King’s Speech — IMDB: 8.5; metacritics.com: 88; average: 8.7
  4. Winter’s Bone — IMDB: 7.5; metacritics.com: 90; average: 8.3
  5. Black Swan — IMDB: 8.6; metacritics.com: 79; average: 8.3
  6. 127 Hours — IMDB: 8.2; metacritics.com: 82; average: 8.2
  7. Inception — IMDB: 9.0; metacritics.com: 74; average: 8.2
  8. True Grit — IMDB: 8.2; metacritics.com: 80; average: 8.1
  9. The Fighter — IMDB: 8.2; metacritics.com: 79; average: 8.1
  10. The Kids Are All Right — IMDB: 7.4; metacritics.com: 86; average: 8.0

I ranked these movies according to IMDB and metacritic.com rankings average. “Toy story 3″ does very well here, by both viewers in IMDB and critics in metacritic.com. Some of the previous leaders spatter across the list giving an interesting perspective for possible Oscar evening winners.

And finally, to get the result we need to sum up all previous scores – from 1 to 10, the smallest score being the best:

List no. 4: ‘The Grande Finale’

  1. The King’s Speech 8
  2. Black Swan 9
  3. The Social Network 10
  4. Winter’s Bone 16
  5. True Grit 17
  6. Toy Story 3 19
  7. Inception 20
  8. The Kids Are All Right 21
  9. 127 Hours 22
  10. The Fighter 23

So here you go! Top 3 most possible Oscar winners according to our little calculation are: leader “The King’s Speech”, followed by “Black Swan” and “The Social Network”. I guess this not a big surprise as “The King’s Speech” already boast 16 wins in such awards as Golden Globes, British Independent Films and others. Let’s not forget 12 Oscar nominations, which is a great accomplishment by itself.

Mr Nobody (2010) – Movie Review

There has been a lot of attempts to put modern science on film. In the case the movie, simply named Mr. Nobody, we can see masterful presentations of some scientific problems, which our science today is not able to explain, wrapped with a thrilling story of a not so average man. From multiverses, time travel and the end of the world, everything in this movie is explained in a language which everyone can understand.

Mr. Nobody is a 138 minutes long science fiction drama and puts the viewer into a hard position of keeping up with the story, which is very complicated.

It tells the story of Nemo Nobody, a 118 year old man in the year 2092. He is the last person on Earth to die of age because everyone else is practically immortal with the help of biological enchantments. They are making a reality show of the last mortal person.

One day a curious reporter sneaks into his room with an “old” kasette recorder and begins to interview him about his life. This is the intro to an epic tale of his life, during which he explains the circumstances how he was born and why he is able to live such a long life.

To review the story on one page is impossible, because Nemo does not only tell his life story, but rather as he puts it, all possible ways how he could have lived his life. The only spoiler I have to put in this review is important for understanding why this movie is a masterpiece: Nemo as a child has to decide if he should live with his mother or father and afterwards the story transforms into 12 different ways of life he could have lived.

It is hard to describe the quality of the movie with merely words, because the actor, Jared Leto (also lead singer of the band 30 Second To Mars) proved to be a master of his craft. The movie is filmed masterfully and the transitions between the different stories aare well concealed, but easily visible if you watch the movie the second time.

The supporting actors are important for the story, because they help the viewer to know which life story is being told. His three love interest are the personification of different kinds of modern day relationships: pure love, painful love and love out of financial interest.

If you watch the movie carefully, you will see the architecture of the building changing and becoming more modern. At the end we get the authors vision of a city in the far future. It is interesting to watch the future storyline because it present a futuristic view of our society, which I have not seen in any other sci-fi movie.

The master behind the camera Jaco Van Dormael stated: “I wanted to create a movie emotional with a bit of humor like Forrest Gump and to have a vast sci-fi background like Star Wars. I think I succeeded.”

Top Hindi Movies

In the domain of movie production, there has been an undeniably rising existence of Hindi cinema, a fresh sign of breathtaking changes in the big picture of the industry. Film producers in India have incessantly made contributions and take part in the essential role of featuring great movies in not only in India but for the entire world of cinema. Nowadays, India has been producing many wonderful movies that depict an array of life-stories in India.

One of the most popular, top rated and the best Hindi movies India has produced are featured in this article. They are considered as must-seen movies because each of them visualizes the best stories as well as the movie stars in their best performances. These movies have created impressive impact that has captured the hearts of their viewers. Here are the top Hindi movies that India has produced:

Mughal-e-Azam

This convincing movie is revolves around the love story between a prince and a court-dancer. This wonderful romantic film would definitely touch your heart as you understand how love can move a mountain. It is indeed one of the greatest love stories India has ever made!

Ghajini

This terrific movie of the suspense thriller genre is directed by the famous director, A.R. Murugadoss. This top rated Hindi movie is another version of the Tamil movie, depicting a story of great love and vengeance. The movie is filled with scenes of well-balanced action, comedy and romance.

Mother India

This amazing movie shows how beautiful life is despite poverty, misfortune and alienation. In addition, it portrays the role of a dignified and unconditional love of an Indian mother.

Sholay

This Hindi movie is the premier grossing movie of the entire cinema history of India. Directed by Ramesh Sippy, this very inspiring film showcases romance, action and tragedy. This movie hit is just very magnificent!